Housing prices, marriage and birth rates in Azerbaijan

Summary

Between 2012 and 2025, Azerbaijan experienced rising housing prices alongside falling marriage and birth rates. This study examines whether these changes are linked and whether marriage is one route through which housing conditions are associated with births. Quarterly series are reconstructed from data published by the State Statistical Committee and analysed with autoregressive distributed lag models that account for seasonal patterns and the sharp disruptions of 2015 and the COVID period. The estimates show a stable negative long-run relationship between housing prices and marriage. A 1 percent higher housing price index is associated with an approximately 1.6 percent lower marriage rate. Housing prices are also negatively associated with births, although a separate long-run relationship is not confirmed in the model relating housing prices directly to births. When the marriage rate from four quarters earlier is included, the joint model supports a long-run relationship among housing prices, marriage and births. The lagged marriage rate is positively associated with births, and the estimated negative association between housing prices and births weakens by 24.5 percent. This pattern is consistent with higher housing costs delaying marriage and reducing later births. It also leaves room for housing constraints after marriage. The results provide the first quarterly evidence for Azerbaijan that housing conditions, marriage and births are linked over time.