The presented article analyzes the fiscal policy and budget rules for the Azerbaijani economy, examining the current situation. It evaluates (i) the ratio of the consolidated budget's non-oil primary deficit to non-oil gross domestic product; and (ii) the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product based on econometric assessments. The evaluations utilize official statistical data from the fiscal block covering the period from 2003 to 2023.

Additionally, the distribution of non-oil/gas Gross Domestic Product (GDP) across various economic sectors has been analyzed. The multiplier coefficients for these sectors have been calculated based on the Input-Output model, and the effects of changes in the consolidated budget's primary expenditures on commercial and non-commercial GDP have been assessed econometrically.

The conducted analysis and evaluations have taken into account world practices, particularly the methodological approaches of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the experiences of various countries.

As a result, the following findings were obtained: (i) the ratio of the consolidated budget's non-oil primary deficit to non-oil GDP exhibits a tendency to converge to zero; (ii) an increase in the consolidated budget's primary expenditures leads to a greater increase in non-commercial non-oil GDP; (iii) the non-oil revenues of the consolidated budget are more significantly dependent on commercial non-oil GDP; (iv) in line with the operational framework, the increasing dynamics of the share of non-oil revenues in the state budget's current expenditures continues; (v) although a reduction in the ratio of public debt to GDP has been recorded according to the budget rule, the exclusion of debts taken on state guarantees from the public debt poses risks to the state's macro-fiscal stability.